गुंतवणूक

राम राम मंडळी

आपण मी लिहिलेले लेखन ईंग्रजीत असले तरी वाचले याबद्दल मी आपला आभारी आहे. खरेतर मला आंग्ल भाषा तितकीसी आवडत नाही व नीट येत पण नाही, पण काही गोष्टींना आपला इलाज नसतो हेच खरे.

पैशाची निर्मिती ही बैंकाकडुन कशी केली जाते, जास्तीत जास्त लोकांनी कर्ज घ्यावे या चिंतेत असलेल्या बैंका भाव वाढ, चलन वाढ कशी आणतात व त्यामुळे चालना कशी मिळते हे आपण
खेळ पैशाचा - भाग १ (पैशाची निर्मिती) http://misalpav.com/node/2436
या भागात पाहीले.

भाव वाढ व चलनवाढ का होते तसेच आवश्यकता काञ ह्याचा आढावा आपण
खेळ पैशाचा - भाग २ (इन्फ्लेशन) http://misalpav.com/node/2437
या लेखात घेतला

बैकाची चलन वाढीसंबंधी काय भुमिका असते व त्यांचे याबाबतीतील धोरण यांचा परामर्श आपण
खेळ पैशाचा - भाग ३ (बँकांची गरज - सतत इन्फ्लेशन) http://misalpav.com/node/2464
या लेखात घेतला.

बाजारात आलेल्या पैशामुळे काय होते व त्याची परीणती कशात होते हे आपण
खेळ पैशाचा - भाग ४ (पैशाचा साठा, प्रगती, मर्यादा) http://misalpav.com/node/2465
या भागात पाहिले.

पैशामुळे मानव व पृथ्वी यांना किती गंभीर धोका निर्माण झाला आहे हे
खेळ पैशाचा - भाग ५ (अर्थव्यवस्था कोसळण्याची गरज) http://misalpav.com/node/2467
येथै आपण पाहीले व त्याचबरोबर जर आपण वेळेवर पाउल का उचलायचे हे आपण पाहीले

श्रीमंती आणण्यासाठी, किंमती स्थिर ठेवण्यासाठी व तिस-या जगातील लोकांना स्वस्तात राबविण्यासाठी केलेली कृती अमेरिकेच्या कशी अंगलट येत आहे व अमेरीकन अर्थव्यवस्था कशी कोसळण्याच्या मार्गावर आहे हे आपण
खेळ पैशाचा - भाग ६ (अमेरीकन बॉण्ड्स करतील जागतिक उलतापालथ ) http://misalpav.com/node/2468
या भागात पाहिले.

मुळात मला काही लोकांनी विचारलेल्या प्रश्नाचे थेट उत्तर या लेखांतुन जरी मिळाले नाही तरी नीट वाचल्या नंतर तुमच्या लक्षात येऊ शकेल की आज जी बाजारात परिस्थीती आहे ती तशी का आहे व त्याचे काय परिणाम होवु शकतात याचा विचार या लेखमालेत झालेला आहे. कुठे मी कमी पडलौ असेल तर ते माझे अज्ञान आहे व ते मी कबुल करतो.

आता थोडे मागे विचारलेल्या प्रश्नांबद्दल

तेजी मंदी ही सतत चालु असतात. व्याज दर कमी जास्त होत असतात त्यावरुन आपल्याला बाजारातील पैसा कमी करण्ञाचे व वाढवण्याचे आर बी आय चे धोरण समजते. ज्या वेळेस दर कमी होतो त्या वेळेस कर्जे घेणे फायद्याचे ठरते कारण चलन वाढी मुळै आपल्याकडे येणारा पैसा पण वाढतो व आपण परत फेड करु शकतो.

ज्या वे ळेस व्ञाज दर कमी होतो तेव्हा गुंतवणुक दार अधीक नफ्याच्या अपेक्षेने शेअर बाजारात पैसा टाकतो अशावेळेस शेअर मधील गुंतवणुक फायदेशीर ठरते पण जेव्हा दर वाढायला लागतात तेव्हा गुंतवणुकदार पैसे काढून घेतात कारण कंपन्याच्या नफ्यावर विपरीत परीणाम होत असतो. लक्षात घ्या कंपनी ने मागे कितीही चांगली कामगिरी केली असली तरी तिचा भाव हा केवळ आणि केवळ भविष्यातील उत्पन्नावरच आधारीत असतो. चांगल्या चा‍गल्या कंपन्या केवळ पुढील तिमाहीत नीट कामगीरी करणार नाहीत म्हणून या बाजाराने अक्षरक्षः नागवलेल्या आहेत. अशावेळी आपले पैसे शेअर बाजारातुन काढून स्थिर उत्पन्न देणा-या जसे मुदत ठेव रिकरींग किंवा सरळ बचत खाते यात टाकावे. बाजार काही संपुन जात नाही पुनःपुन्हा संधी मिळत असते. शोधावी लागते.

सोने चांदी यात पैसे टाकण्यास हरकत नाही पण मराठी माणसांचा ( जास्त करुन स्त्रियांचा) अवगुण असा की जरीचांगली किंमत येत असेल तरी ते विकत नाहीत तसेच सोने शुद्ध स्वरुपात न बाळगता दागिन्यांच्या रुपात वापरतात त्यामुळे परतावा चांगला मिळत नाही.

साधारण बाजारात काय चालु आहे ‍ ... लोक नवीन कर्ज घेत आहेत की जुने परतफेड करुन शांत बसण्याचे धोरण अंगिकारत आहेत यावरुन पुढील ६-१२ महिन्यात काय होवु शकते हे समजते. थोडे हिंडले, चर्चा केली की शहाणपण येते असे जे म्हणतात ते चुकीचे नाही .

महत्वाचे म्हणजे गांगरुन जायचे नाही. मुद्दल काही करुन गमवायचे नाही. फायदा कमी जास्त झाला तरी फरक पडत नाहि व मागिल आठवणींनी गहिवरुन जायचे नाही असे केले म्हणजे त्रास होत नाही

करा गुंतवणूक करा

सर्वांना शुभेच्छा

नाना चेंगट

(लेख आवडले वा नाही आवडले हे कृपया प्रतिसाद, खरड, व्यनि तुन कळवावे ही विनंती)

"सदर लेखन हा माझ्या 'इंग्लिश डॉक्टरेट'चा एक भाग आहे म्हणून, तसेच या विषयावर मी लिहावे असा काही लोकांचा आग्रह आहे म्हणून माझे लेखन मी येथे जसेच्या तसे प्रसिद्ध करत आहे. हे मराठी संकेतस्थळ आहे याची मला पूर्ण कल्पना आहे परंतु वर म्हटल्याप्रमाणे सदर लेखन हा माझ्या व्यक्तिगत अभ्यासाचाच एक भाग असल्यामुळे तो मराठीत भाषांतरीत न करता इंग्रजीमध्येच येथे प्रसिद्ध करत आहे. जनरल डायर यांनी "अपवादात्मक परिस्थिती" म्हणून हे मान्य केले आहे!"

खेळ पैशाचा - भाग १ (पैशाची निर्मिती) http://misalpav.com/node/2436
खेळ पैशाचा - भाग २ (इन्फ्लेशन) http://misalpav.com/node/2437
खेळ पैशाचा - भाग ३ (बँकांची गरज - सतत इन्फ्लेशन) http://misalpav.com/node/2464
खेळ पैशाचा - भाग ४ (पैशाचा साठा, प्रगती, मर्यादा) http://misalpav.com/node/2465
खेळ पैशाचा - भाग ५ (अर्थव्यवस्था कोसळण्याची गरज) http://misalpav.com/node/2467

The key to all market analysis anywhere in the world is the US bond market. It is the keystone to their arch of fraud whose stones consist of the various methods, which they use to extort and control the financial systems around the world. This market is worth over 45 trillion worldwide with the US share of that market being worth about 25 trillion. The bond market has five main categories, namely, corporate bonds, government and agency bonds, municipal bonds, bond derivatives such as mortgage-backed securities, asset- backed securities, and collateralized debt obligations and funding bonds. Fed will act to save the bond market at all costs. All other markets are secondary, with the exception of the gold and silver markets, the suppression of which is JOB ONE at the Fed. Any other markets, in particular the stock markets, will be sacrificed in a New York second to save the bond market. Knowing this provides a certain amount of clarity when predicting what the cartel will do in any given situation.

US treasury bonds, which are a large segment of the bond market, are used to absorb trade deficits caused by free trade, globalization, off-shoring, outsourcing and both legal and illegal immigration and to keep all the inflation out of US. Foreign countries with large forex reserves are told to use their dollars to buy interest-bearing treasuries instead of buying hard assets in the US which would be highly inflationary for US financial system because exported dollars would then reenter US domestic economy and increase US money supply. In this way, the rampant inflation caused by profligate issuance of money and credit by an out-of-control Fed in its attempt to cover up the destruction of US economy stays safely overseas, having been absorbed by the treasuries.

This issuance of money and credit was created by the Fed to support the free trade-globalization agenda and the transnational conglomerates, which are gutting US economy, especially manufacturing sector. This scheme is now unraveling as foreigners shun dollar-denominated treasuries yielding negative real returns as inflation, a falling dollar and increased risk destroy the value of outstanding treasury bonds. The floodgates are now starting to open as a sea of dollar forex flees in terror from dollar-denominated treasuries into hard assets, the effects of which are already starting to see in highly elevated commodity prices which are also being driven by banks that are desperate for profits to improve their balance sheets by exploiting the loophole. Hold on to your hat, because this flow of money back into US domestic economy is just getting started. Wait until all this money pours back into the US economy. Inflation will go inter-dimensional and take US through a wormhole back to the days 1920-1945 era.

Treasury securities are also used to fuel the Fed's repo pool which is used to power market manipulations by making tens of billions of dollars available on a moment's notice. The Fed creates money out of nothing to buy treasuries from the primary dealers, who then use the sales proceeds to fund the operations of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets which assists the elitists in stealing from you on a 24/7 basis. The dealers offer to buy these securities back from the Fed within a month or less in what are called repurchase agreements. Thus, this "funny money" is shoveled back and forth from the Fed to the primary dealers and from the primary dealers back to the Fed as needed whenever financial assistance for manipulation of markets is needed. Treasuries are therefore the engine which drives this fraudulent scheme, a scheme that is completely illegal because the authority granted is exceeded beyond all belief in what one day will be exposed as the greatest abuse of financial power by US government officials in the history of world.

The bond market also serves as a product pool for the cartel, which sells over-rated credit-derivatives with attractive yields that are used to addict institutional investors in much the same way as drug dealers dupe drug addicts into a life of drug addiction by offering attractively priced samples of their "products." The bond market is therefore the primordial soup from which the toxic waste products of "financial engineering" issued forth, and is the true birthplace of the credit-crunch debacle. The bond market was used to manufacture fraudulent derivatives by slicing, dicing and re-securitizing various types of assets that were being used to secure existing bonds, lacing these re-securitizations with tranches of risk based on assumptions about performance and default that were patently false, and pawning them off on mainly institutional investors as AAA paper with help from co-conspirators in the ratings agencies. The creation of this toxic waste was also enabled by fraud from top to bottom that was perpetrated by lenders, underwriters, originators, appraisers and borrowers. Subprime mortgage derivatives are but one example of this.

The bond market is also the source of funding for all larger business concerns seeking to leverage their growth and income flows and attempting to maximize shareholder equity. Once a business tastes cheap credit, there is no turning back. Trade in this credit-crack was fueled and expanded to new heights by none other than Alan Greenspan, by pushing the Fed funds rate down to a ludicrous 1.0%. Most, if not all, large businesses continue to over-utilize what used to be substantially cheaper money and credit to finance large portions of their operations by selling bond issues. Without this money and credit, these businesses would wither and die. Further, much of this bond debt was floated at a variable rate of interest tied to the prime rate, which could soon blast off into outer space in a rocket powered by hyper-stagflation, a rapidly declining dollar and ever-accelerating risk caused by ever-increasing defaults on debt across the board. The Fed has lost control over interest rates, which will now be what bond investors require them to be. This rate disaster will eventually destroy corporate profits and propel US into recession and depression. Gold and silver are your only refuge.

As many poor souls are painfully aware, the bond market was also used to dupe auction rate municipal bond investors out of their money by promising AAA ratings and liquidity as good as cash. These investors chased after higher yields on what they thought was secure municipal debt in a liquid market backed by AAA rated bond insurers that in reality were leveraged to their eyeballs and should never have had AAA ratings. The institutions that created this market are now refusing to keep this market going or to make good on their promises to investors.

Quite notoriously, the bond market was used to fund the real estate bubble by providing funds from bond investors chasing higher yields to mortgage lenders who then lent the money to people who should never have bought homes to begin with. These mortgage lenders then sugar-coated the resulting waste with fraud heaped upon fraud. These mortgages were then packed into the tranches of various new toxic waste derivatives and were often sold back to the very bond investors who had originally provided the funds to the mortgage lenders to begin with. The proceeds from the sale were thus recycled back to the mortgage lenders to create more toxic waste, completing the cycle of doom. This was nothing short of a continual rollover of fraud and deceit, which ended abruptly when Oppenheimer analyst Meredith Whitney exposed the overvaluation of Citigroup's toxic waste.

Note how the financial institutions that run the bond market, with the ratings agencies, have used their positions of power and influence to suck in the money of investors while generating enormous profits for Wall Street banks, investment banks, brokers and securities dealers in the form of commissions, fees and spreads.

The bond market is where the banks park their money when they are not using it in some other scam. They use the bonds to make greater returns through arbitrage, borrowing cheaply from each other or by floating commercial paper and then investing the proceeds in higher-yielding, longer-term bonds and derivatives. This scheme for generating profits has unraveled as the value of the waste bonds and derivatives given as security for the commercial paper have imploded due to defaults and declining real estate values, and as rising short-term interest rates have destroyed yield spreads while eroding the principal value of the bond collateral. The institutional investors borrowed short-term, and invested long term, after which the yield curve became inverted and the waste collateral became overvalued and unmarketable, thereby putting the commercial paper market into a cryogenic state.

And then there is the whole derivatives market of credit default swaps and interest rate swaps, which are simply extensions of the bond market through "financial engineering" to provide a form of insurance for the bond market based on bond performance in terms of repayment of both principal and interest. As defaults have accelerated, these swaps have multiplied like rabbits and will soon reach about one quadrillion dollars worth of notional principal. This is the financial version of the China Syndrome waiting to happen. First there will be trouble with credit default swaps as banks and large corporations fail due to a severe recession, a horrible real estate market that grows worse by the minute, hyper-stagflation, insolvency, negative yields on investment, a collapsing dollar and a complete and utter collapse of consumer spending and confidence which will continue to set all-time lows. These circumstances will then send real interest rates into double digits, after which the interest rate swaps will implode, taking the entire world financial system down with them. This quivering, quadrillion dollar caldera of molten death is what distinguishes our current debacle from all previous financial disasters. When this caldera erupts, it will make what happened in the 1930's look like a picture of prosperity. Americans and in general people in the world have no idea how bad this situation really is. Unfortunately, they are going to find out very soon, after it is too late. Do not be like them! Buy gold and silver, take physical possession of it, and wait for the financial mushroom clouds to appear. What will be a disaster for the uninformed will be the greatest profit-generating event of all time for the informed.

(Continued…)

"सदर लेखन हा माझ्या 'इंग्लिश डॉक्टरेट'चा एक भाग आहे म्हणून, तसेच या विषयावर मी लिहावे असा काही लोकांचा आग्रह आहे म्हणून माझे लेखन मी येथे जसेच्या तसे प्रसिद्ध करत आहे. हे मराठी संकेतस्थळ आहे याची मला पूर्ण कल्पना आहे परंतु वर म्हटल्याप्रमाणे सदर लेखन हा माझ्या व्यक्तिगत अभ्यासाचाच एक भाग असल्यामुळे तो मराठीत भाषांतरीत न करता इंग्रजीमध्येच येथे प्रसिद्ध करत आहे. जनरल डायर यांनी "अपवादात्मक परिस्थिती" म्हणून हे मान्य केले आहे!"

खेळ पैशाचा - भाग १ (पैशाची निर्मिती) http://misalpav.com/node/2436
खेळ पैशाचा - भाग २ (इन्फ्लेशन) http://misalpav.com/node/2437
खेळ पैशाचा - भाग ३ (बँकांची गरज - सतत इन्फ्लेशन) http://misalpav.com/node/2464
खेळ पैशाचा - भाग ४ (पैशाचा साठा, प्रगती, मर्यादा) http://misalpav.com/node/2465

There has been a total failure to pursue the policies required to maintain ecological balance and to protect the earth. The widespread failure to pursue policies sufficient to reverse deterioration of the biosphere and avoid ecological collapse, it is necessary that there is only one hope to protect the earth and it is the collapse of our inflation based economy. It is better for earth that growth-based economic system crashes sooner rather than later.

Humanity and the Earth are faced with an enormous conundrum -- sufficient climate policies enjoy political support only in times of rapid economic growth. Yet this growth is the primary factor driving greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental ills. The growth machine has pushed the planet well beyond its ecological carrying capacity, and unless constrained, can only lead to human extinction and an end to complex life.

With every economic downturn, like the one now looming in the United States and globally, it becomes more difficult and less likely that policy sufficient to ensure global ecological sustainability will be embraced. This explores the possibility that from a biocentric viewpoint of needs for long-term global ecological, economic and social sustainability; it would be better for the economic collapse to come now rather than later.

Economic growth is a deadly disease upon the Earth, with capitalism as its most virulent strain. Throw-away consumption and explosive population growth are made possible by using up fossil fuels and destroying ecosystems. Holiday shopping numbers are covered by media in the same breath as Arctic ice melt, ignoring their deep connection. Exponential economic growth destroys ecosystems and pushes the biosphere closer to failure.

Humanity has proven itself unwilling and unable to address climate change and other environmental threats with necessary haste and ambition. Action on coal, forests, population, renewable energy and emission reductions could be taken now at net benefit to the economy. Yet, the losers -- primarily fossil fuel industries and their bought oligarchy -- successfully resist futures not dependent upon their deadly products.

Perpetual economic growth, and necessary climate and other ecological policies, are fundamentally incompatible. Global ecological sustainability depends critically upon establishing a steady state economy, whereby production is right-sized to not diminish natural capital. Whole industries like coal and natural forest logging will be eliminated even as new opportunities emerge in solar energy and environmental restoration.

This critical transition to both economic and ecological sustainability is simply not happening on any scale. The challenge is how to carry out necessary environmental policies even as economic growth ends and consumption plunges. The natural response is going to be liquidation of even more life-giving ecosystems, and jettisoning of climate policies, to vainly try to maintain high growth and personal consumption.

We know that humanity must reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80% over coming decades. How will this and other necessary climate mitigation strategies be maintained during years of economic downturns, resource wars, reasonable demands for equitable consumption, and frankly, the weather being more pleasant in some places? If efforts to reduce emissions and move to a steady state economy fail; the collapse of ecological, economic and social systems is assured.

It may be better for the Earth and humanity's future that economic collapse comes sooner rather than later, while more ecosystems and opportunities to return to nature's fold exist. Economic collapse will be deeply wrenching -- part Great Depression, part African famine. There will be starvation and civil strife, and a long period of suffering and turmoil.

Many will be killed as balance returns to the Earth. Most people have forgotten how to grow food and that their identity is more than what they own. Yet there is some justice, in that those who have lived most lightly upon the land will have an easier time of it, even as those super-consumers living in massive cities finally learn where their food comes from and that ecology is the meaning of life.

Economic collapse now means humanity and the Earth ultimately survive to prosper again.

Human suffering -- already the norm for many, but hitting the currently materially affluent -- is inevitable given the degree to which the planet's carrying capacity has been exceeded. We are a decade at most away from societal strife of a much greater magnitude as the Earth's biosphere fails. Humanity can take the bitter medicine now, and recover while emerging better for it; or our total collapse can be a final, fatal death swoon.

A successful revolutionary response to imminent global ecosystem collapse would focus upon bringing down the Earth's industrial economy now immediately. As society continues to fail miserably to implement necessary changes to allow creation to continue, maybe the best strategy to achieve global ecological sustainability is economic sabotage to hasten the day. It is more fragile than it looks.

Humanity is a marvelous creation. Yet her current dilemma is unprecedented. It is not yet known whether she is able to adapt, at some expense to her comfort and short-term well-being, to ensure survival. If she can, all futures of economic, social and ecological collapse can be avoided. If not it is better from a long-term biocentric viewpoint that the economic growth machine collapse now, bringing forth the necessary change, and offering hope for a planetary and human revival.

I wish no harm to anyone, and want desperately to avoid these prophesies foretold by ecological science. +
I speak for the Earth.

(Continued....)

"सदर लेखन हा माझ्या 'इंग्लिश डॉक्टरेट'चा एक भाग आहे म्हणून, तसेच या विषयावर मी लिहावे असा काही लोकांचा आग्रह आहे म्हणून माझे लेखन मी येथे जसेच्या तसे प्रसिद्ध करत आहे. हे मराठी संकेतस्थळ आहे याची मला पूर्ण कल्पना आहे परंतु वर म्हटल्याप्रमाणे सदर लेखन हा माझ्या व्यक्तिगत अभ्यासाचाच एक भाग असल्यामुळे तो मराठीत भाषांतरीत न करता इंग्रजीमध्येच येथे प्रसिद्ध करत आहे. जनरल डायर यांनी "अपवादात्मक परिस्थिती" म्हणून हे मान्य केले आहे!"

खेळ पैशाचा - भाग १ (पैशाची निर्मिती)
खेळ पैशाचा - भाग २ (इन्फ्लेशन)
खेळ पैशाचा - भाग ३ (बँकांची गरज - सतत इन्फ्लेशन)

Money stock

As mentioned earlier, the stock of money society disposes of is the total amount of outstanding loans. By itself this is very strange. For what should be the relation between the outstanding loans and the need for money in society? What does the need of borrowers and their capacity to pay back have to do with the need of money of the rest of society? If you buy a house tomorrow, and, with your loan, bring into existence money for twenty years, that does not have anything to do with the need of the economy in ten or fifteen years, does it?

In fact, society disposes of a hazardous money stock, brought about by issued loans in the past, and the part that still has to be paid back. Each day parts are paid back and new loans are contracted. Because of the gigantic volume of the money stock the population hardly notices the variations. In theory, central banks could centralize all information about outstanding loans and know exactly how much money will be left from the loans tomorrow, in two days or in ten days. With monetary operations they could keep the money stock rather stable. However, as mentioned above, this is not the policy of central banks. They only make the money stock grow.

There are theories that say, that without inflation the economy could not be steered. One of the key arguments is, that when the money stock does not increase, wages cannot be lowered when needed by economic adversity. “The paid out wages would have to be lowered and employees would never accept that.” And “when the money stock increases, cuts in wages can be hidden by letting the wages rise less quickly than the inflation.” So, the proponents of this theory understand, that inflation is bamboozlement of the people and argue, that it cannot work otherwise. Yet, their theory does not hold true. For, with a stable money stock, some prices would rise, while others would lower. People’s acceptance of variations in wages would be very different from today’s situation, where, since decades, prices only rise. Besides, with a stable money stock, it is even possible to maintain the paid out wages stable during economic adversity, if during economic prosperity the extra income is formed by shares in profits and tax-reductions.

Today’s money system does not start from a quantity of money that would fit the needs of the economy. Today’s system only assures, that banks collect interest over all existing money, that the competition among them causes maximum monetary inflation and that central banks secure their income and power. The stimulation of the economy consists of nothing else than a little more or a little less interest and inflation. For the rest the economy must deal with the money that happens to be there at a particular moment.

Inflation and economic growth

Our monetary system, ruled by banks, interest and inflation, already existed when we were born. It is part of our “natural” surrounding. That is why it is hard to see which influence it has on our life and on society. Everything we could say about it, can easily be judged as normal. We don’t know better. The effects of the system are everywhere, even in our way of thinking and in our convictions.

So we find it self-evident, that the economy can only be sound when it grows. The concept of “economic growth” has been canonized by economists, politicians and everyone who understands or assumes he understands society. In Western Europe and North America strived with success for economic growth since the start of the industrial revolution. The system has proven itself.

It is not an accident, that our money-system is based on eternal inflation and our economy on eternal growth. Some clever bankers conceived the system this way at the beginning of the past century. Interest and inflation would form a permanent income for the banks, as counterpart of simply juggling money out of their hats. The loans would lead to more economic activity. Governments and the population would come and beg for more loans. It fit perfectly in the developments of the industrial area. Mechanization, mining, extensive farming, colonial resources, scaling up, competition among nations, wars and reconstructions, the explosive growth of the populations, workers from abroad, women at work, the development of the services sector, the boom in computer technology, it all led to economic growth. Economic growth was synonym for prosperity. Today, in Western Europe, we still talk in terms of economic growth. By the flattening of the population growth this can now only be obtained by an ever increasing working pressure per employee. The roads of economic growth and prosperity part.

Inflation works like the carrot in front of the nose of the donkey. Everybody starts to run harder to obtain some of the extra money that has been put into circulation. And while running, nobody escapes from the payment for the use of money. Thanks to the inflation everybody participates in paying the interest to the banks. And if, by all of us running harder, we grow wealthier, we can almost be sure that the interest will be raised. In banking jargon it then says, that the economy is overheated and has to slow down. Until we must run harder again.

World wide expansion

Meanwhile the banks have made themselves conspicuous. With their juggling trick they conquered the world. Everywhere banks have taken the power over money and make the population pay interest and inflation. Every-where, except in China, central banks have obtained special laws, to set – independently from the will of the local government – the level of interest and inflation. After Western Europe and Northern America other countries are now developing their economy. For the banks this means new governments and populations, who want money from the hat.
In fact it does not make a lot of difference if central banks are private or state banks. Nearly everywhere they have obtained a special statute, that grants them a high level of independence from the local government. Together with the commercial banks, they determine how many loans are issued, how much money society disposes of and how much the population has to pay.

Further growth or a sustainable society?

The policy of most central banks is based on permanent growth of the money stock. In Western Europe and North America this growth of money accompanied the growth of the economy and the growth of the population. Meanwhile the world has changed a lot. The explosive expansion of the population and the expansion of economic activities have tremendously increased the pressure on the environment. Fertile areas have been taken over by humans. Forests have changed into farm land and cities. Many species have been exterminated. Most of the fish from oceans and seas has been plundered. By the fast growing world population the pollution of soils, water and air still increases. In many places there are food and drinking water shortages. The climate is changing. The prognoses indicate, that with the current trends the population of the world will continue to grow fast and will even still double. The lines in the graphic have been drawn as if this is possible…

Limits to growth

The earth does not grow along with the expansion of our economies and the populations. For the first time in human history we encounter the limits. Of course we have no idea what to do. Limits to the world population? No one in power dares to burn his fingers on that subject.

Where is that limit? That depends on what we want as humanity. If we want to reach the highest possible quality of life – for our children and grandchildren -, we should not burden the earth more than strictly necessary. We should strive for a smaller population. That would also take away the principle reason for conflicts and wars.

Today’s policy is completely opposite to the needs of a peaceful and sustainable society. The money system plays a key role. Reforms are necessary. The longer we wait, the more difficult it will become in the future.

(Continued...)

"सदर लेखन हा माझ्या 'इंग्लिश डॉक्टरेट'चा एक भाग आहे म्हणून, तसेच या विषयावर मी लिहावे असा काही लोकांचा आग्रह आहे म्हणून माझे लेखन मी येथे जसेच्या तसे प्रसिद्ध करत आहे. हे मराठी संकेतस्थळ आहे याची मला पूर्ण कल्पना आहे परंतु वर म्हटल्याप्रमाणे सदर लेखन हा माझ्या व्यक्तिगत अभ्यासाचाच एक भाग असल्यामुळे तो मराठीत भाषांतरीत न करता इंग्रजीमध्येच येथे प्रसिद्ध करत आहे. जनरल डायर यांनी "अपवादात्मक परिस्थिती" म्हणून हे मान्य केले आहे!"

खेळ पैशाचा - भाग १ (पैशाची निर्मिती)
खेळ पैशाचा - भाग २ (इन्फ्लेशन)

Banks need inflation

It may seem, that inflation keeps itself going rather naturally. When prices rise during the lifetime of loans, new loans must finance more expensive things and thus have to be higher. At any time the cause of inflation would be the inflation itself. It is a clear and openly admitted policy of central bankers. Inflation is a component of our banking system.
As said earlier, competition among commercial banks assures, that they will issue the maximum amount of loans. Hence, to higher or lower inflation the central bank only needs to loosen or tighten the issuance of loans.
The best known way of central banks to steer inflation is changing the interest rate. It is meant to influence potential borrowers. The interest works like the acceleration and the break pedal of the economy. By an increase of the interest rate, prices will lower, or at least rise less quickly. By a decrease in the interest rate prices will rise faster.

A way to explain it is, that when the interest rate becomes higher, people will borrow less. And when less ending loans are replaced by new loans, there will be less money in the country. Over time, you can buy more with each unit of money. Prices lower or at least rise less quickly. Here the central bank has no intention to see the prices lower. In this case, apparently, the money stock is still allowed to grow, but just a bit slower.

When the central bank lowers the interest rate, the reason is straightforward: let there be more loans and let the speed of growth of the money stock increase. Of course, the interest rates also work on savings. When interest on savings is low, more people will prefer spending their money.

Central banks cannot steer the inflation on specific prices, like the prices of bread, bicycles or machines. They rather steer the monetary inflation, the increase of the total volume of loans. The extra money never spreads evenly through the economy. It rather increases the effects of other factors, like rising cost or rising demand.

When the economy cannot absorb the inflation anymore and the money does not spread sufficiently, bubbles occur. Then, bigger and bigger masses of money go round in for instance the stock markets or the real estate market, where money is earned by the forcing up of prices. Enterprises too are more and more often bought and sold as if they were financial toys.

Although central banks admit that inflation is part of their policy, they rather put forward economic reasons. They sound plausible most of the times and are richly provided with comments by economists and journalists. However, most of them forget, that, in the first place, central banks need inflation themselves.
Central banks need income

Central banks have obtained the power to control the volume of the money stock, to set inflation and interest, and to dictate rules for financial institutions. With this power they can influence the economy. They have obtained laws to hold this power. If they would depend on others for their income, their power might quickly erode again. That is why they collect their own income.

Central banks get their income from monetary operations. A very lucrative source of income is borrowing money when the interest is low and lending it out when interest is high. As monetary operation the purpose is as follows. When interest at commercial banks lower too much, (low demand), the central bank borrows large volumes of money from the banks. This way there will be less money left in circulation. Therefore demand for loans will increase again and interest at commercial banks will go up again. In other times, when interest at commercial banks gets too high, the central bank lends out money to banks, so they can supply more loans to their customers and finally the interest lowers again. The bigger the differences in interest between the borrowing and lending of money, the higher the benefits for the central bank.

To get income from these operations, inflation is essential. Without inflation, interest rates would stay rather low. There would be hardly any difference between high and low interest. Related to this trade, central banks also expand their balance sheet. They buy more securities (lend out more money) than they sell.

Many central banks say, they want to keep inflation around 2 percent. With this they mean an increase of 2 percent of the Consumer Price Index of their country, not the real inflation of the money stock, which normally is a lot higher.
Inflation is not only a necessity for central banks’ income, but also a means to exercise power over the users of money. By monetary inflation the population pays – even against its will - for the use of money. Banks collect interest from the borrowers. This way only the borrowers seem to pay for the created money. But let’s see how it works when there is inflation.

By inflation, the borrower has the advantage that his payments to the bank represent less worth over time. These payments concern interest and pay-back of the principal. The interest forms income for the bank. We may be sure, that the bank has foreseen the inflation and has counted a bit more interest in advance. So, for the interest, inflation does not deliver an advantage for the borrower. However, for the principle, this is different. The bank only needs its nominal amount to be paid back, for, with the payback, only the typed numbers, with which the loan started, have to be lowered to zero. The devaluation of the amounts to pay back for the principle certainly is an advantage for the borrower.

The borrower’s advantage on principle payments can be calculated separately for each installment. And when we also calculate the inflation supported by the following users of the money created by this loan, the totals will appear to be roughly the same.

In this example the red line shows the total amount of transactions made with the money of the loan during the lifetime of the principle. The loss of value from inflation is dissimulated in the 60 transactions. When the inflation is 2 percent, this is in average 0.167 % per transaction. The loss of value for the users of the money equals the advantage for the borrower.

Simply put: if the borrowers must pay 6 percent of interest (on the principle) and has 2 percent advantage from the inflation (on the principle), his advantage equals 2/6 of the interest. The users of the money lose an equal amount from inflation. The banks don’t lose. They have foreseen the inflation and have count a bit more interest in advance.
In other words, this is what the inflation policy of central bankers does: shift a part of the interest burden from the borrowers to the users. This way the users pay interest for the use of the money!
Manipulating inflation and interest

With the authority to set inflation and interest the central bankers have the power. They can make us save more, invest more, consume more, speculate more and always work harder.

As shown above, inflation is interest the users of money have to pay. Inflation pushes the population to work harder and to compete to obtain some of the extra money put into circulation and make up for the loss of value of the money they detain.

Inflation also pushes people not to keep money in their pocket or under their mattress, but to spend it or else bring it to the banks for some interest. This way most of the money remains available for the banks.

When interest is high, people will save more. When interest is low, people will rather spend, borrow and invest more.

What we think interesting to do at a particular time, largely depends on what the central bank wants us to do.

(Continued…)

"सदर लेखन हा माझ्या 'इंग्लिश डॉक्टरेट'चा एक भाग आहे म्हणून, तसेच या विषयावर मी लिहावे असा काही लोकांचा आग्रह आहे म्हणून माझे लेखन मी येथे जसेच्या तसे प्रसिद्ध करत आहे. हे मराठी संकेतस्थळ आहे याची मला पूर्ण कल्पना आहे परंतु वर म्हटल्याप्रमाणे सदर लेखन हा माझ्या व्यक्तिगत अभ्यासाचाच एक भाग असल्यामुळे तो मराठीत भाषांतरीत न करता इंग्रजीमध्येच येथे प्रसिद्ध करत आहे. जनरल डायर यांनी "अपवादात्मक परिस्थिती" म्हणून हे मान्य केले आहे!"

खेळ पैशाचा - भाग १ (पैशाची निर्मिती)

Permanent inflation

Price inflation makes lose value on the money. It can fluctuate a lot over time. Many economic theories offer different and sometimes contradictory explanations about the root causes of this inflation. However, these theories rather explain increasing and lowering prices among products and services. They do not explain why inflation is permanent. The permanent inflation has a different cause.

Consumer Price Index and Price Inflation

Price inflation leads to dissatisfaction of the population. That is why a lot of countries use a Consumer Price Index, which shows more pleasant figures. So, when politicians or officials use the word “inflation”, they most often mean the changes in the Consumer Price Index or Wholesale Price Index.

This index is normally based on a yearly price comparison of a basket of products, that an average household might need. The content of the basket varies from country to country and so do the underlying rules to calculate the index. One country may include the cost of food, fuel and housing; another country may leave these costs out. Some countries publish the categories of products they have in the basket, but the exact products usually remain secret. Nevertheless, some statistics bureaus disclose some tricks they use to obtain flattering indexes. For instance, they change the content of the basket periodically. Products that rise in price too much are taken out and replaced by cheaper ones. Or, when the price of a product remains stable, but quality improves, they count the quality improvement as a price reduction.

So, the content of the basket is adjusted periodically. The justification is: "when prices rise, households adjust their purchases too." And what does this policy means for the index? Well, since the defined household cannot spend more than it earns, the price-increase of the CPI-basket is automatically limited to the increase in earnings. The defined household cannot pay higher prices.

Unless indicated otherwise, the expression “price inflation” refers to the real increase in prices in all transactions and not to some CPI/WPI. And “inflation” means, in the first place, the increase of the money stock.

Cost-push theory

As per the cost-push theory, increasing costs are responsible for price inflation, like higher wages, increase in price of imported raw materials or increase of taxes on consumption.

Demand-pull theory

The demand-pull theory says, price inflation appears when demand exceeds the offer. Increased demand can be caused by export activities, tax reductions or growth of the money supply. Fluctuations in demand can also occur, when consumers save more money and, after some time, start spending it again.

People’s expectations

The expectations for price inflation also affect real price inflation. Manufacturers and traders generally have pricelists, which are valid for six months or a year. They have to include a percentage for expected inflation. This immediately increases the prices, and thus contributes to the real inflation. The same goes for bankers. When they issue loans, they foresee that the interest they get in return over time will be lowered by inflation, thus they calculate an extra margin. Extra cost of interest contributes to the real inflation.

Increase of the money stock

If demand-pull and cost-push inflations would take place without expansion of the money-stock, some prices would rise and others would lower. However, we rather see some prices rise faster than others, but rarely prices that lower. This is because, over time, the money stock increases by more and more outstanding loans. This is called the monetary inflation.

Of course it affects the prices in transactions, however, never evenly. Practically, when more money becomes available, this extra money creates room for price increases in each successive transaction it goes through. We may presume, that when other inflationary factors are at work somewhere, for instance high demand, the extra money will lead to extra price increases there.

The monetary inflation is the cause of the permanent overall price increases we notice in the long run. It is the only inflation that counts over years and decades.

Inflation, in the first place, refers to inflating the money stock. This leads to the increase of average prices. Today we also use the word "inflation" for the increase of prices. Keep in mind, when the money stock grows and, simultaneously, productivity grows, it may happen, that the average prices don’t increase or increase less quickly. The available money is spread out among a greater number of products and services and this helps keep prices down.

(Continued ...)

"सदर लेखन हा माझ्या 'इंग्लिश डॉक्टरेट'चा एक भाग आहे म्हणून, तसेच या विषयावर मी लिहावे असा काही लोकांचा आग्रह आहे म्हणून माझे लेखन मी येथे जसेच्या तसे प्रसिद्ध करत आहे. हे मराठी संकेतस्थळ आहे याची मला पूर्ण कल्पना आहे परंतु वर म्हटल्याप्रमाणे सदर लेखन हा माझ्या व्यक्तिगत अभ्यासाचाच एक भाग असल्यामुळे तो मराठीत भाषांतरीत न करता इंग्रजीमध्येच येथे प्रसिद्ध करत आहे. जनरल डायर यांनी "अपवादात्मक परिस्थिती" म्हणून हे मान्य केले आहे!"

Money plays a very important and big role in today's westernised lifestyle adopted by nearly all countries including India. Nearly everything is determined by money. Money has become the religion. Act of not earning money is so fearfil that if any one is doing any work for social cause or self happiness, people tend to believe that there must be some profit.

Still it is strange, that only few people know the tricks, by which money originates and disappears again. Money becomes worth less all the time, but this is caused, by the money system itself. Also the chase for economic growth and the always increasing working pressure in industrialized countries, are caused by the money system. Money can also serve for oppression, for instance of the Third World countries, or be the motive for wars, like the one against Iraq or like the proposed Iran war.

Would people like to see behind the scene? Let's go on a money trip.

Making money

Exchanges, a primary need : People need each other's products and services. Money is used for exchange of products. Of course, it would be nice if money provided an honest medium of exchange. But this is not the case. Money loses value all the time.

Most people believe, that money is created by the state. However, most governments have little or no say over their country's money supply. Bankers have taken over this power. They have turned this medium of exchange into a lucrative way of taxing the population by collecting interest. Bankers permanently collect interest on nearly all the money in the world.

Money is created by banks

Commercial banks create money for loans. They do this simply by typing numbers into the bank accounts of borrowers, who can spend it as if it were actual banknotes. Today the vast majority of all money only exists as numbers in bank accounts. By law, these numbers have the same value as banknotes and coins.Each commercial bank is allowed to create new money this way. Behind the scene, hidden from the customers' eyes, then starts the lucrative way of dealing with other people's money. In fact, the amounts that have been typed into the accounts are comparable to bad cheques. The bank itself does not have the money. When the borrower spends the typed amount by writing a cheque or a payment order, the bank will use other people's money to pay for it. Unseen, this money is taken from the deposits and savings accounts from other customers. The numbers on people's deposit and savings accounts remain unchanged. And by the time people want to dispose of people's money again, there will be some loan that will be paid back to the bank, so people will never know about it. In many countries the minimum reserve banks must keep is fixed by law. This is called CRR ( Capital Reserve Ratio) (Often something like 8-10 percent.) Most of the times these reserves are then kept by the country's central bank like RBI.

Because banks use other people's money to back the new money they lend out, the amount of new money they can create, is limited. In practice around 90 percent of all money on deposit and savings accounts is used to back new money. However, the money on deposit and savings accounts is also money that has been juggled out of the banker's hat once. So, new "money created out of nothing" is backed by already existing "money created out of nothing". But as long as nobody notices, the juggler gets applause. .

The merry-go-round of Money

Loans have a hidden effect. When the borrower spends the money, the receiver will deposit it at his bank. This bank, thanks to this deposit, can issue new loans. These loans too, will be spent and become deposits at a following bank. And so on. Of course, at each new level a bank collects interest. It is a vast merry-go-round of money creation, which inflates the total amount of money in the country. Each time when loans, issued by one bank, arrive as deposits at a following bank, a new round of loans can start. The scheme also applies, when the money of a loan is spent and comes back as a deposit at the same bank again.

So, the effect of the merry-go-round is that banks together create more loans and collect more interest all the time. It inflates the money stock by many times. But do we, or the banks, get richer from this?

Banks create more money, but they don't magically create more goods to buy. When people have more money, but there is still the same quantity of goods to buy, prices simply go up. Each unit of money becomes worth less. That is called inflation.

So, when banks put more money into circulation, the value of each unit of money goes down. And that is also true for the interest they collect. When they issue 10 times more loans and inflate the money stock by 10 times, the interest they collect is worth 10 times less too.

Competition assures inflation

Most countries have only one official currency, but multiple commercial banks issuing the money. And although these banks together do not get much richer from inflating the money-stock, they still do so. The only reason for this is the competition among them. Although competition sounds healthy, when we speak about normal enterprises, competition among banks means lending out as much money as possible and thus maximum inflation.

For each bank competition is just a battle to collect more interest and to increase its market share and benefits. The bank with the best results will grow quicker than the others and, in the long run, will be able to eat competitors.

Not everyone can borrow the money he wants. When lending money, banks demand collateral they can seize if the borrower defaults on his payments. People with sufficient collateral can obtain loans and invest easily. Big corporations even pay less interest. The demand for collateral works as a continual widening of the gap between rich and poor. For societies this is a permanent looming danger. As banks and not governments decide about loans, governments can only try to mask the social cracks, but will not be able to heal nor prevent them.

An effect of loans all borrowers know too well, is that the principle amount has to be paid back with interest. The entrepreneur borrowing money for investments will have to generate extra income to pay this interest. Loans for investments are not only a cash-cow for bankers, but can also contribute to more economic activity. Making loans available for investments would be the useful role of the banks for society.

On the contrary, loans for consumer spending normally do not contribute to more consumption. It is true, that thanks to consumer credit, the purchase of an article takes place earlier. However, this advantage is offset by a longer period of decreased purchase power of the consumer. The consumer must not only earn the money for his purchase, but also for the interest. Therefore he will purchase less consumption goods with his wages. When the consumer pays the interest to the bank, only a part of this money will become wages of bank employees and only part of these wages will be spent on consumer goods. So, credit for consumer goods rather leads to a decrease in total purchases of consumer goods.

Where does the money go?

Once the borrower has spent the money of his loan, it becomes rather unpredictable how successive holders will use this money. One might acquire the borrowed money by selling a car to the borrower. The seller may then pay the money out as wages. The wage earner might then use the money to pay his rent. In fact, as soon as money enters into the big playground of transactions among people, it can serve for all purposes we use money for.

During the lifetime of loans, the money is transferred from bank to bank each time when account holders make payments to account holders of other banks. For this purpose the central bank keeps an account for each bank and executes these transfers.

Sometimes it is more practical to use banknotes and coins. At the bank or at an automated teller machine one can take money from his account. When it is spent, the receiver will bring it to his bank, make a deposit, and will see the amount appear on his account. Money can take the form of cash or numbers in bank accounts. For the payments, it does not matter which form it takes.

Where does money end?

Money ends when the borrower pays back the principle of the loan to the bank. At that moment the bank transfers money from the borrowers deposit account to the borrowers credit account. The credit account will show, that the borrower's debt has been reduced. The money came into existence by putting numbers on the borrower's account and vanishes by reducing these numbers.

The borrower also has to pay interest to the bank. The interest does not form part of the money the bank created for this borrower. The borrower must work and obtain it from other money in circulation. So, the lifetime of money ends, when loans end. And if all loans would be paid back, there would be no money left. Yet, for the moment, there are oceans of money and on all this money the banks collects interest.

In society money goes round. Money comes people's way when people produce or do things that others want. Money rolls the other way, when people purchase things or make people work for people. Eventually people can save some money for later. Bankers do it differently. They simply and permanently take some money from others and spend it. It is based on the principle, that the money is theirs, since they created it. Thus bankers find it logical, that they are entitled to collect rent. Indeed, in some countries this levy is called "rente". (In English "interest".) And although everyone uses the money, the bank always takes this levy from the first user, the borrower.

Banks cannot be considered as ordinary commercial enterprises. They have declared themselves owners of all money and they make the population pay to rent it.

Nearly all money is temporary. Ending loans have to be replaced by new loans to keep money in circulation. Loans start at different moments and have different lifetimes. Often the borrower pays back a part of his loan each month. It means, that each amount in circulation has its own "time-out" date, which is the foreseen date the borrower has to pay it back.

The total amount of money in circulation determines how much money we dispose of for our transactions and, in the long run, it sets the overall price-level of products and services.

During its lifetime money is a medium for transactions. A transaction takes place when two parties find it interesting. "A" finds the money he gets more interesting and "B" finds the second hand car he purchases more interesting. An exchange takes place. Now "A" has the money and "B" has the car and both feel satisfied.

Transactions may include a payment for added value. When a baker makes bread, he adds his work to the flour, milk and yeast. The work he does represents added value. When he sells the bread the transaction is not just an exchange of property, but includes payment for the added value.

By itself, the total amount of transactions in a country does neither give any indication about the added value, nor about the value of goods and services produced in a country.

(Continued.....)

मीसळ्-पाव वर सद्दया शेअर बाजारावर कोणीच चर्चा करत नाही का बरे?

Has the American Dream Become a Fairy Tale? हा लेख Laura Rowley यांनी लिहीला आहे
वाचुन प्रतिक्रिया द्याव्यात ही विनंती

http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/moneyhappy/87379

राम राम मंडळी,

नाना चेंगट, शरूबाबा यांच्याप्रमाणे आज जरा आम्हालाही शेअर बाजारात फेरफटका मारायचा मूड आला म्हणून हे चार शब्द!

तांत्रिक विश्लेषण -

कालचा बंद १५६००.

वरची पातळी साधारण १८२०० च्या आसपास आणि खाली साधारण पहिली पातळी १५३०० (कालच्या बंदच्या जवळ) व दुसरी १४७०० च्या आसपास निर्देशांक फिरतो आहे असे दिसते. ही रेंज गेल्या महिन्या सव्वा महिन्यांच्या कालावधीतील आहे. म्हणजे साधारण ३२०० ची उलथापालथ! बाजाराच्या दृष्टीने महिन्याभराच्या कालावधीत ३२०० अंकांची उलथापालथ ठीक नव्हे!

मंडळी, आजचा १५६०० निर्देशांक पाहता, इथून फक्त १८०० अंक दूर असलेली दिनांक १७ ऑगस्ट २००७ रोजीची १३७८० ही पातळी तांत्रिक विश्लेषणाच्या दृष्टीने मला महत्वाची वाटते. १३७८० या पातळीवरून बाजाराने खूप मोठी झेप घेतली आणि या दिवसापासून बाजाराने पुन्हा कधीही मागे वळून हा आकडा बघितला नाही आणि दिनांक १० जानेवारी २००८ रोजी थेट २१२०० ची पातळी गाठली! म्हणजे साधारणत: ५ महिन्यांच्या कालावधीत ७२०० अंकांची भयानक तेजी!

या कालावधीतील माझ्या सर्व प्रतिसादांत, 'हे जे काही चाललं आहे ते मला कळत नाही, मी बाजारापासून सध्या दूर कोपर्‍यात हातात पैशे घेऊन चुपचाप बसलो आहे' असंच म्हटलं आहे. तेव्हा अगदी मोजक्याच १० ते १२ कंपन्या माझ्या मते पैसे गुंतवण्यालायक होत्या. शेवटी व्हायचं तेच झालं आणि ५ महिन्यात ७२०० अंक चढलेला निर्देशांक पुढे अवघ्या सव्वा दोन महिन्यांत (१० जानेवारी ते १८ मार्च) २१२०० च्या उच्चांकावरून सणसणीत ६५०० अंकांनी आपटला व दिनांक १८ मार्च रोजी १४७०० ला बंद झाला! आणि आज तो १५६०० इतका आहे.

म्हणजे आता बघा हां मंडळी गंमत कशी आहे ती!

दिनांक - १७ ऑगस्ट २००७ - १३७८०.
दिनांक - ०१ एप्रिल २००८ १५६००.

म्हणजे वरील साडे सात महिन्यांच्या कालावधीतील खरी तेजी ही फक्त १५६०० वजा १३७८० = १८२० अंकांची आहे आणि ह्या तेजीला अधिक रिऍलिस्टिक म्हणता येईल! आणि म्हणूनच मी ५ महिन्यांतील ७२०० अंकांच्या तेजीला "भयानक तेजी" असे शब्द वापरले आहेत!

काय मंडळी, मी म्हणतोय ते पटतंय का? पटलं तर घ्या, नायतर द्या सोडून!

सांगायचा मुद्दा इतकाच की कंपन्यांची नेहमी फंडामेन्टल तब्येत तपासूनच पैसे गुंतवावेत. उदाहरणार्थ, प्रति समभाग उत्पन्न, किंमत/मिळकत गुणोत्तर, लाभांश, वार्षिक आणि तिमाही नफ्यांचे आकडे इत्यादी निकषात जर कंपनी बसत असेल तरच पैसे गुंतवावेत अन्यथा गुंतवू नयेत! माझ्या निरिक्षणानुसार २१२०० च्या पातळीवर बाजारातील जवळ जवळ ९० टक्के समभाग हे यापैकी 'किंमत/मिळकत गुणोत्तर' या निकषात बसत नव्हते आणि त्याच वेळेस नेमके सगळेजण आता बाजार २४००० जाणार, २५००० जाणार असे मांडे खात बाजारात पैसे गुंतवत होते. शेवटी व्हायचं तेच झालं!

असो..

तांत्रिक दृष्ट्या बोलायचं झालं तर वर म्हटल्याप्रमाणे १७ ऑगस्ट २००७ ची १३७८० ही पातळी आणि अलिकडच्या काळातील २७ फेब्रुवारीची १८१०० ही पातळी, या दोन्ही पातळ्यांचं आता निरिक्षण करावं लागेल. त्यानंतर भले तेजी आली तरी १८१०० हा पहिला महत्वाचा टप्पा मानावा लागेल, त्यानंतर पूर्वीचा १० जानेवारीचा २१२०० चा दुसरा टप्पा,

आणि त्यानंतर मग काय बघायलाच नको, २५००० काय अन् ३०००० काय! मज्जाच मज्जा! :)**

माझ्यापुरतं बोलायचं झालं तर मी सध्या माझ्याकरता आणि माझ्या अशिलांकरता हळूहळू खरेदी करत आहे. कारण आत्ता नेमक्या बर्‍याचश्या कंपन्या वरील सर्व निकषांत बसत असून येत्या एक ते तीन वर्षांचा कालावधी गृहीत धरल्यास ह्या कंपन्या अतिशय चांगला परतावा देतील असं माझा अनुभव सांगतो..! आत्ता गाड्या रिकाम्या धावत आहेत, तेव्हा आत्ताच मस्तपैकी खिडकीची जागा पकडून बसून घ्या! पुढे मग २५००० ला किंवा ३०००० हजाराला गाडीत पुन्हा बरीच गर्दी होईल आणि मग दारात लोंबकाळत उभं रहावं लागेल! शिवाय डोकं बाहेर असल्यामुळे बाहेरच्या खांबाला डोकं आपटून धावत्या गाडीतून खाली पडण्याची भिती! )

काय मंडळी, पटतंय का माझं म्हणणं?!

नजिकच्या काळातले काही मुद्दे -

१) आता येत्या महिन्याभरात सर्व कंपन्यांचे वार्षिक निकाल जाहीर होतील. ते आकडे काय आहेत, कसे आहेत ते पाहिले पाहिजे. कुठल्या कंपनीनी कशी प्रगती केली आहे हे पाहून मी खास मिपाच्या सदस्यांकरता खरेदीयोग्य कंपन्यांची काही नांवे सुचवीन. बाजाराच्या भाषेत सांगायचं तर "माल लेके बैठ जाओ!" )

मला पोष्टकार्ड पाठवून, विचारणा करून माझी सशुल्क सेवा घ्यायलाही हरकत नाही. अहो एका मराठी माणसाला तरी चार पैशे मिळतील!

२) मान्सून.

३) सरकार - बाजाराच्या दृष्टीने मनमोहन सिंग आणि चिदंबरम यांचा उपयोग आता संपलेला आहे. कारण त्यांच्या सरकारने शेवटचे पाचवे बजेट जाहीर केले आहे. तेव्हा आता येणारे सरकार कसे आहे, यावर पुढची लॉग टर्म तेजी बरीचशी अवलंबून आहे असं मला वाटतं! येणारं सरकार कसं आहे? स्पष्ट बहुमतातलं आहे की मिलिजुली सरकार आहे? की निवडणुकांचा निकाल त्रिशंकू लागतो, इत्यादी अनेक गोष्टींचा विचार बाजार करेल!

असो, मी काही कुणी ज्ञानी/तज्ञ नाही, तेव्हा आता निर्देशांक २४ हजार जाईल, २५ हजार जाईल असं अंतर्ज्ञानही मला नाही! अर्थात तो जाऊही शकतो आणि गेला तर माझ्याकरता आणि माझ्या अशिलांकरता ते चांगलंच आहे! कारण मी तरी येत्या ३ वर्षांचा कालावधी गृहीत धरून खरेदी सुरू केली आहे!

आपला,
(मुंबईतले बरेचसे बाजार हिंडून अखेर शेअर बाजारात स्थिरावलेला!)

-- तात्या अभ्यंकर.
दलाल स्ट्रीट, मुंबई - २३.